When there is a strong leader present, players are likely to hunt the animal the leader chooses. Prisoners Dilemma, Stag Hunt, Battle of the Sexes, and Chicken are discussed in our text. For example, international sanctions involve cooperation against target countries (Martin, 1992a; Drezner, . Since this requires that the fish have no way to escape, it requires the cooperation of many orcas. [50] This is visually represented in Table 3 with each actors preference order explicitly outlined. 0000002790 00000 n On the other hand, Glaser[46] argues that rational actors under certain conditions might opt for cooperative policies. HV6am`vjyJ%K>{:kK$C$$EedI3OilJZT$h_'eN. International Relations Classical Realism- Morganthau- anarchy is assumed as a prominent concern in international relations,with the international Stag Hunt It would be much better for each hunter, acting individually, to give up total autonomy and minimal risk, which brings only the small reward of the hare. Rabbits come in the form of different opportunities for short-term gain by way of graft, electoral fraud, and the threat or use of force. [49] For example, see Glenn H. Snyder Prisoners Dilemma and Chicken Models in International Politics, International Studies Quarterly 15, 1(1971): 66103 and Downs et al., Arms Races and Cooperation., [50] Snyder, Prisoners Dilemma and Chicken Models in International Politics., [51] Snyder, Prisoners Dilemma and Chicken Models in International Politics.. Put another way, the development of AI under international racing dynamics could be compared to two countries racing to finish a nuclear bomb if the actual development of the bomb (and not just its use) could result in unintended, catastrophic consequences. Together, these elements in the arms control literature suggest that there may be potential for states as untrusting, rational actors existing in a state of international anarchy to coordinate on AI development in order to reduce future potential global harms. Actor As preference order: DC > DD > CC > CD, Actor Bs preference order: CD > DD > CC > DC. An individual can get a hare by himself, but a hare is worth less than a stag. For example, suppose we have a prisoner's dilemma as pictured in Figure 3. Also, trade negotiations might be better thought of as an iterated game the game is played repeatedly and the nations interact with each other more than once over time. For example, Jervis highlights the distinguishability of offensive-defensive postures as a factor in stability. [38] Michael D. Intriligator & Dagobert L. Brito, Formal Models of Arms Races, Journal of Peace Science 2, 1(1976): 7788. Explain how the 'Responsibility to Protect' norm tries to provide a compromise between the UN Charter's principle of non-interference (state sovereignty) and the UN genocide convention. In this game "each player always prefers the other to play c, no matter what he himself plays. Here, we assume that the harm of an AI-related catastrophe would be evenly distributed amongst actors. Author James Cambias describes a solution to the game as the basis for an extraterrestrial civilization in his 2014 science fiction book A Darkling Sea. [55] See also Bostrom, Superintelligence at Chapter 14. Stag Hunt - Game Theory .net [25] In a particularly telling quote, Stephen Hawking, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark, and Frank Wilczek foreshadow this stark risk: One can imagine such technology outsmarting financial markets, out-inventing human researchers, out-manipulating human leaders, and developing weapons we cannot even understand. 1 The metaphors that populate game theory modelsimages such as prisoners . [21] Jackie Snow, Algorithms are making American inequality worse, MIT Technology Review, January 26, 2018, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610026/algorithms-are-making-american-inequality-worse/; The Boston Consulting Group & Sutton Trust, The State of Social mobility in the UK, July 2017, https://www.suttontrust.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/BCGSocial-Mobility-report-full-version_WEB_FINAL-1.pdf. Together, the likelihood of winning and the likelihood of lagging = 1. The prototypical example of a PGG is captured by the so-called NPD. trailer 0000002252 00000 n [3] While (Hare, Hare) remains a Nash equilibrium, it is no longer risk dominant. The area of international relations theory that is most characterized by overt metaphorical imagery is that of game theory.Although the imagery of game theory would suggest that the games were outgrowths of metaphorical thinking, the origins of game theory actually are to be found in the area of mathematics. Two players, simultaneous decisions. The Stag Hunt Game: An Example of an Excel-Based Probabilistic Game endstream endobj 1 0 obj <> endobj 2 0 obj [/PDF/Text] endobj 3 0 obj <> endobj 8 0 obj <> endobj 9 0 obj <>stream Learn how and when to remove these template messages, Learn how and when to remove this template message, "Uses of Game Theory in International Relations", "On Adaptive Emergence of Trust Behavior in the Game of Stag Hunt", "Stag Hunt: Anti-Corruption Disclosures Concerning Natural Resources", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Stag_hunt&oldid=1137589086, Articles that may contain original research from November 2018, All articles that may contain original research, Articles needing additional references from November 2018, All articles needing additional references, Wikipedia articles that are too technical from July 2018, Articles with multiple maintenance issues, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 5 February 2023, at 12:51. As stated before, achieving a scenario where both actors perceive to be in a Stag Hunt is the most desirable situation for maximizing safety from an AI catastrophe, since both actors are primed to cooperate and will maximize their benefits from doing so. The stag hunt problem originated with philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau in his Discourse on Inequality. Stag hunt - Wikipedia [52] In the context of developing an AI Coordination Regime, recognizing that two competing actors are in a state of Deadlock might drive peace-maximizing individuals to pursue de-escalation strategies that differ from other game models. What is the difference between 'negative' and 'positive' peace? to Be Made in China by 2030, The New York Times, July 20, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/20/business/china-artificial-intelligence.html, [33] Kania, Beyond CFIUS: The Strategic Challenge of Chinas Rise in Artificial Intelligence., [34] McKinsey Global Institute, Artificial Intelligence: The Next Digital Frontier.. Exam 1: Game Theory in IR Class 4 Flashcards | Quizlet If they are discovered, or do not cooperate, the stag will flee, and all will go hungry. startxref [27] An academic survey conducted showed that AI experts and researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years. For example, it is unlikely that even the actor themselves will be able to effectively quantify their perception of capacity, riskiness, magnitude of risk, or magnitude of benefits. Under this principle, parties to an armed conflict must always distinguish between civilians and civilian objects on the one hand, and combatants and military targets on the other. These are a few basic examples of modeling IR problems with game theory. In Exercises 252525 through 323232, f(x)f(x)f(x) is a probability density function for a particular random variable XXX. Although the development of AI at present has not yet led to a clear and convincing military arms race (although this has been suggested to be the case[43]), the elements of the arms race literature described above suggest that AIs broad and wide-encompassing capacity can lead actors to see AI development as a threatening technological shock worth responding to with reinforcements or augmentations in ones own security perhaps through bolstering ones own AI development program. Additionally, Koubi[42] develops a model of military technological races that suggests the level of spending on research and development varies with changes in an actors relative position in a race. Formally, a stag hunt is a game with two pure strategy Nash equilibriaone that is risk dominant and another that is payoff dominant. Most events in IR are not mutually beneficial, like in the Battle of the Sexes. Payoff matrix for simulated Chicken game. The primary difference between the Prisoners Dilemma and Chicken, however, is that both actors failing to cooperate is the least desired outcome of the game. The game is a prototype of the social contract. War is anarchic, and intervening actors can sometimes help to mitigate the chaos. THE STAG HUNT THE STAG HUNT T HE Stag Hunt is a story that became a game. Throughout history, armed force has been a ubiquitous characteristic of the relations between independent polities, be they tribes, cities, nation-states or empires. I thank my advisor, Professor Allan Dafoe, for his time, support, and introduction to this papers subject matter in his Global Politics of AI seminar. Under which four circumstances does the new norm of the 'Responsibility to Protect' arise? 0000003954 00000 n Furthermore, a unilateral strategy could be employed under a Prisoners Dilemma in order to effect cooperation. In this section, I outline my theory to better understand the dynamics of the AI Coordination Problem between two opposing international actors. 0000002169 00000 n Intriligator and Brito[38] argue that qualitative/technological races can lead to greater instability than quantitative races. A classic game theoretic allegory best demonstrates the various incentives at stake for the United States and Afghan political elites at this moment. Competition for AI superiority at national level most likely cause of WW3 imo.. Interestingly enough, the Stag Hunt theory can be used to describe social contracts within society, with the contract being the one to hunt the stag or achieve mutual benefit. If they are discovered, or do not cooperate, the stag will flee, and all will go hungry. In this article, we employ a class of symmetric, ordinal 2 2 games including the frequently studied Prisoner's Dilemma, Chicken, and Stag Hunt to model the stability of the social contract in the face of catastrophic changes in social relations. The dynamics changes once the players learn with whom to interact with. As an advocate of structural realism, Gray[45] questions the role of arms control, as he views the balance of power as a self-sufficient and self-perpetuating system of international security that is more preferable. 'War appears to be as old as mankind, but peace is a modern invention'. Two hunters can either jointly hunt a stag (an adult deer and rather large meal) or individually hunt a rabbit (tasty, but substantially less filling). [28] Once this Pandoras Box is opened, it will be difficult to close. Table 11. [12] Apple Inc., Siri, https://www.apple.com/ios/siri/. From that moment on, the tenuous bonds keeping together the larger band of weary, untrusting hunters will break and the stag will be lost. The real peril of a hasty withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, though, can best be understood in political, not military, terms. Weiss and Agassi wrote about this argument: "This we deem somewhat incorrect since it is an oversight of the agreement that may change the mutual expectations of players that the result of the game depends on Aumanns assertion that there is no a priori reason to expect agreement to lead to cooperation requires completion; at times, but only at times, there is a posteriori reason for that How a given player will behave in a given game, thus, depends on the culture within which the game takes place".[8]. Civilians and civilian objects are protected under the laws of armed conflict by the principle of distinction. If both choose to leave the hedge it will grow tall and bushy but neither will be wasting money on the services of a gardener. [42] Vally Koubi, Military Technology Races, International Organization 53, 3(1999): 537565. This essay first appeared in the Acheson Prize 2018 Issue of the Yale Review of International Studies. If, by contrast, each hunter patiently keeps his or her post, everyone will be rewarded with a lavish feast. To what extent does today's mainstream media provide us with an objective view of war? In recent years, artificial intelligence has grown notably in its technical capacity and in its prominence in our society.